Election Predictions Gone Stupid
News

kids_vote.jpgExciting, gripping, important news! The Guardian reports today in the "Briefly" section that kids aged 8-18 would "rather vote for President George W. Bush than for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by a 10-point margin." Shocking, man, shocking! In other shocking news, kids aged 8-18 are stupid and there's a reason they aren't allowed to vote.

But it gets better. Apparently this poll is meaningful because "the polls of children have had 'a remarkable track record at predicting presidential elections outcomes.'" Whoa! It couldn't be because parents, the voters, pass their politics onto their young, impressionable children, could it? Yet this poll of youngsters isn't the only stupid measurement cited as a predictor of election results. Others include:

  • Height: the tallest nominee from each major political party has nearly always won the election since the introduction of television; the exception was year 2000, when Al Gore topped George W. by two inches but (somehow) lost the election. Good news for Kerry fans: Kerry's 6'5", and Dubya's only 5'11". Might as well just cancel this year's election now!

  • The performance of the Washington Redskins on the eve of the election: If the 'Skins lose or tie, the incumbent president gets tossed out. This has been accurate for the past 72 years. Impressive, really.

  • Sales of presidential Halloween masks: So far Gee-Dub masks are outselling Kerry ones; a clear indicator that Bush will prevail, because mask sales have been accurate predictors the last five whole elections—how can it fail now? (Maybe this would be less ridiculous is the George W. mask, shown here, actually looked like him.)

  • The performance of the Dow Jones industrial average: The incumbent tends to win the presidency when the Dow gains from August through October (the lead-up to the election). Since the Dow debuted in 1897, this has been a correct indicator in 22 of 25 presidential races. This predictor actually makes sense, since a reasonable reaction to a faltering economy is to vote out the incumbent president.

  • Then there's the straight astrology. I won't even touch this stuff.

  • Finally, there are tons of state-based predictors. Here's one which claims to be "INFALLIBLE," which means it must, indeed, be awesomely perfect, as if handed down by God Himself.

So what do we learn from all of this? Election season turns children, adults, random people on the Internet, media pundits, and politicians alike into raving idiots. And while it's kinda sweet that the Guardian obviously wants UCSD students to care a lot about the upcoming election, printing uncritical news shorts in a bid to raise political awareness just makes discerning readers call bullshit.

For the curious among us, the news short in question is the last one on this page.

Satan's Homegirl, Oct 07 2004, 09:03 PM

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